It is well known that technology is the core factor driving competition among intelligent driving solution providers. However, in this year’s market, alongside technological prowess, market strategy has emerged as another critical factor influencing the market share of these providers.
This year, some providers have seen their market share grow against the trend thanks to stable, consistently popular vehicle models, while others have experienced “roller-coaster” volatility in market share due to drastic fluctuations in the sales volumes of their mass-produced models.
As of August, the penetration rate of Urban NOA (covering both in-house solutions developed by automakers and those from third-party providers) reached 27.9%, nearing the 30% mark. Monthly installation volumes have hovered around 400,000 units, signaling that the market has entered a plateau phase characterized by slower growth.
The market is split roughly 60/40 between third-party solution providers and in-house solutions developed by automakers.
Although the overall mass-production scale of Urban NOA has plateaued, market share continues to concentrate among the leading providers. Huawei, DeepRoute.ai (Yuanrong), and Momenta have all surpassed the 60,000-unit mark in mass-production volume.
Huawei continues to lead with 68,600 units, followed by DeepRoute.ai at 62,100 units and Momenta at 61,300 units. The market shares of these top three players have converged, standing at 16.0%, 14.5%, and 14.3%, respectively; notably, Huawei’s share dropped from 24.4% in January to 16.0% in August, narrowing its lead.
Together, these three leaders command approximately 45% of the market, maintaining a competitive landscape dominated by the “Huawei-DeepRoute-Momenta” trio.
DeepRoute.ai has seen the most significant shift in mass-production scale; in January, it ranked eighth with just 17,600 units and a 6.6% market share, but by August, it had climbed to second place.
Growing from 17,600 to 62,100 units, DeepRoute.ai has achieved steady monthly increases in mass-production volume, ranging from several thousand to over ten thousand units. The volume growth in August was primarily driven by new models from Great Wall Motor: 7,024 units for the Haval H10 and 5,968 units for the Tank 300L, alongside 2,532 units for the Leapmotor D99.
Fluctuations in the market share of solution providers are closely linked to the specific vehicle models in mass production and their client portfolios.
This is particularly true for “hit” models (those with monthly sales exceeding 5,000 units); given the current market climate, shifts in which models become hits significantly impact the market share of solution providers.
As is well known, competition in the automotive market is cutthroat, leading to rapid turnover in the list of hit models.
This turnover was particularly pronounced between June and August of this year. Over this three-month period, 13 of the 16 models that dropped off the hit list were associated with solution providers, while solution providers accounted for 12 of the 20 newly added models. Such major reshuffling of the hit list inevitably triggers changes in solution provider market shares. Even if a provider successfully launches a hit model, their mass-production volume can fluctuate wildly if that model subsequently falls off the hit list.
This explains why some solution providers, despite securing contracts for numerous models, see little growth—or even volatility—in their actual mass-production volumes.
Therefore, for solution providers, success requires not just a single hit model, but the ability to consistently secure hit models over time.
Currently, Huawei and DeepRoute (Yuanrong) are the primary players capable of consistently securing hit models.
Huawei, a “super player” with its various “Jie” (e.g., AITO, Luxeed) and “Jing” series, naturally possesses a strong foundation for producing hit models. DeepRoute’s success, meanwhile, stems from a commercial strategy that anchors itself to “cornerstone clients” for deep mass-production partnerships, rather than casting a wide net by picking up just one or two models from various automakers. Consequently, these cornerstone clients can consistently entrust DeepRoute with their hit models.
This serves as a key metric for evaluating the competitiveness of solution providers this year: whether they have cornerstone clients, whether those clients’ sales volumes are stable or growing, and whether the models entrusted to them are core vehicles that drive the bulk of sales—all these factors determine the growth trajectory of a solution provider’s mass-production volume. Through its partnership with Leapmotor, DeepRoute has seen steady growth in Leapmotor’s sales figures; notably, Leapmotor achieved growth against the trend amidst the overall contraction of the automotive market this year.
However, Leapmotor also plans to utilize its in-house developed urban NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) system for certain models. Naturally, this is contingent upon the in-house system meeting high standards for performance and safety. Current market sentiment and user expectations regarding urban NOA performance are extremely demanding; any negative impact on the user experience could easily trigger a backlash in public opinion.
Additionally, shifts in market structure significantly influence the market share of solution providers.
Market penetration rates and growth speeds vary across three distinct segments: vehicles priced under 100,000 RMB, those between 100,000 and 200,000 RMB, and those above 200,000 RMB. Put simply, the size of the “pie” differs for each segment.
The sub-100,000 RMB market is in its nascent stage; the number of vehicles equipped with urban NOA rose to 10,400 units, pushing market penetration to 3.6%. This growth was driven primarily by two Leapmotor models—the A10 and A05—utilizing DeepRoute’s solutions.
Although this price segment is just getting started, it will significantly impact the market share of solution providers. It is a segment characterized by “super-hit” models—some achieving monthly sales in the tens of thousands—yet it currently boasts the lowest urban NOA penetration rate of the three segments. If a solution provider can secure a deal for a single super-hit model, their market share could skyrocket.
DeepRoute was the first to enter this market, achieving a volume of over 10,000 equipped units; currently, it holds a near-monopoly in this segment.
The 100,000–200,000 RMB segment represents the “mid-tier” market and serves as a fiercely contested battleground for third-party solution providers. On one hand, automakers show a strong willingness to adopt urban NOA; on the other, penetration has only risen from 4.7% to 14.2%. Since growth typically slows only after reaching 60% penetration, there is still room for a three- to four-fold increase. Consequently, solution providers are concentrating their efforts on this mid-tier segment.
The market for vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB—where urban NOA adoption first took hold—continues to see rising volumes. Although sales volume in the market segment for vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB dropped by over 50,000 units this year, the adoption of urban NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) systems bucked the trend and grew. In the first eight months of the year, the penetration rate of urban NOA rose from 40.2% to 60.8%, with the number of equipped vehicles increasing from 232,000 to 317,000.
However, reaching a 60% market penetration rate implies that growth is set to slow, leaving limited room for further increases in penetration.
The market segment above 200,000 RMB accounts for the bulk of mass-production volume for many solution providers—often representing more than half of their total output. For instance, Huawei’s mass-production volume is concentrated here, as is more than half of the volume for Qianli Haohan and Momenta.
An analysis of these three market segments reveals that, while the overall volume of urban NOA systems has plateaued, there remains immense potential for growth.
The segment above 200,000 RMB has surpassed 60% penetration and is entering a phase of slower growth, meaning it will contribute less to the incremental volume for solution providers. Meanwhile, the 100,000–200,000 RMB segment is entering a phase of rapid growth and has become the primary battleground for solution providers; both early movers and latecomers are vying for a share of this expanding market. Finally, the sub-100,000 RMB segment is just getting started and offers significant potential for increased penetration, with DeepRoute (Yuanrong) currently serving as the key player.
Looking ahead, the 100,000–200,000 RMB and sub-100,000 RMB segments will drive market growth. For solution providers, their future market share will depend on the success they achieve in these two segments.
DeepRoute has seen the fastest growth in mass-production volume this year, partly due to correctly anticipating shifts in market structure. Its partnership with Leapmotor enabled a rapid pivot from the over-200,000 RMB segment to the 100,000–200,000 RMB and sub-100,000 RMB segments.
The evolution of the intelligent driving market this year requires solution providers to compete not only on technology but also on their ability to execute market strategies built upon that technological foundation.
Market dynamics are more complex than ever. Future market share will be determined by the ability to accurately assess shifts in market structure, secure “cornerstone” clients that ensure stable or growing sales volumes, and maintain the consistent success of “hit” vehicle models.